Russia’s Multi-Layered Approach: Conventional Force and Geopolitical Threats

Moscow – Russia is employing a multi-layered approach to the Ukraine war, combining the brute force of its conventional military with the calculated use of geopolitical threats to achieve its objectives.
The first layer is conventional force. President Vladimir Putin has announced the capture of nearly 5,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in 2025, a tangible result he claims gives Russia the “complete strategic initiative.”
The second layer is the geopolitical threat. Putin is using this claimed military success as leverage to warn the United States against deeper involvement. His threat that Tomahawk missiles would trigger a “new stage of escalation” is a clear attempt to intimidate and influence Western policy.
This two-pronged strategy is being met with a counter-strategy from Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is highlighting a third layer of the conflict: Russia’s alleged use of hybrid tactics, such as employing oil tankers for espionage and sabotage.
Zelenskyy’s vow to stop these activities with allied help demonstrates that while Russia may be focused on a two-layer game, the conflict is far more complex, with resistance and initiative appearing in unexpected arenas.