A Test of Nerves: Putin Banks on Western Fear of Escalation

The current standoff over Ukraine’s future is, above all, a test of nerves, and Vladimir Putin is betting heavily on the West’s deep-seated fear of escalation. His threat to attack foreign troops is not just a military warning; it is a psychological tool designed to make his adversaries too scared to act.
Putin knows that democratic societies are, by their nature, risk-averse, especially when it comes to conflicts that could spiral into a great power war. The political cost for any Western leader of suffering casualties in a direct clash with Russia would be immense.
The refusal of Germany, Italy, and Spain to commit troops is proof that this strategy is effective. These governments are responding to a rational calculation of risk and a political need to avoid a catastrophic conflict. Putin’s threat simply provides a powerful reason to justify their caution.
The question now is whether this fear will lead to total paralysis. Putin is banking on the idea that the West’s nerve will break first, forcing it to abandon any meaningful military security guarantee for Ukraine. The outcome of this test of nerves will likely determine the shape of European security for years to come.